Navigating the nexus of food, energy, and ecology

Foodshed approaches for integrated land use policies

Abstract

Increasing competition for land among food and feed production, renewable energy, settlement expansion, and ecological restoration creates a pressing policy challenge in many regions. Diets, farming practices, and food loss and waste jointly shape land demand and greenhouse gas emissions, while decisions on bioenergy versus wind and photovoltaic deployment affect both land availability and climate outcomes. Yet existing foodshed frameworks rarely integrate energy system alternatives and carbon sequestration potentials into a single scenario-based assessment. This study addresses that gap by extending the Metropolitan Foodshed and Self-sufficiency Scenario (MFSS) framework to quantify trade-offs across the food-energy-ecology nexus. The MFSS’s primary contribution lies in embedding renewable energy land-use modeling, greenhouse gas accounting, and carbon sequestration estimation into a single comparative scenario frame­work, moving beyond self-sufficiency assessment toward integrated analysis.

We apply this extended MFSS framework to the governmental district of Lower Franconia (Bavaria, Germany). Building on region-specific yield data and consumption patterns, we quantify per-capita and aggregate land footprints, theoretical self-sufficiency rates, and surplus land available after meeting a 100% regional food supply threshold. Beyond prior MFSS applications, we allocate remaining land to renewable energy production (bioenergy crops, photovoltaic, wind) and carbon sequestration via conversion to potential natural vegetation, while estimating greenhouse gas emissions across diets and farming systems.

Across 24 scenarios combining four dietary patterns (baseline omnivorous, flexitarian, vegetarian, vegan), two production systems (conventional, organic), and food loss and waste assumptions, dietary shifts and waste reduction strongly reduce land footprints and expand surplus land for renewable energy and ecological restoration. Organic scenarios require more land due to lower yields but exhibit lower management-related emissions per hectare. Bioenergy crops cannot meet regional primary energy needs with available land, whereas wind and photovoltaic can satisfy regional energy demand while preserving substantial areas for carbon sequestration and biodiversity.

The framework offers governance-relevant opportunities for municipalities and food system actors seeking integrated, place-based land-use strategies that align food self-sufficiency, energy transitions, and climate performance.